I don’t think we’ve ever witnessed a U.S. Presidential election season where so much attention has been given to the shifting odds of winning on weekly basis. Granted the 2024 election has seen events occur that no one thought were possible. An incumbent president stepped down after extreme pressure from his base. A former president and current candidate Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt.
With such crazy events behind us as a nation, we now focus on the battle for the White House between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Latest Elections Odds Movement Trump vs. Harris
Real Clear Politics provides election betting odds from six betting markets. Over the past few weeks, we have seen each candidate take big leads in the odds to win the election, only to end up falling back to near 50/50. As we enter October we have the rare situation where Harris is leading the odds, but Trump appears to have the more consistent polling numbers.
| Betting Odds | Harris | Trump |
|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 50.4 | 48.1 |
| Betfair | 49 | 46 |
| Betsson | 51 | 51 |
| Bovada | 51 | 49 |
| Bwin | 52 | 49 |
| Points Bet | 52 | 49 |
| Polymarket | 48 | 47 |
| Smarkets | 50 | 46 |
Polymarket Latest 2024 Election Odds
Polymarket has quickly become the authority on Presidential Election odds due to its massive volume of bets and international audience. Over the past 2-3 weeks, we have seen Trump and Harris exchange 10-point leads, only to watch them evaporate.
With the potential for 1-3 debates scheduled for this Fall, we can only assume the volatility of the election odds on Polymarket will increase daily.
Predict’It Continues To Favor Harris
Predict’It has been the trusted source for election odds movement in the U.S. since it is not legal to bet on elections in America.
Smarkets Favors Harris over Trump
Smarkets is a new player in the election odds game, but we respect their data. The overall volume of bettors is not massive, but the market reaction consistently appears justified to current events.
Odds to Win Key Swing States in 2024 Presidential Election
| State | Republican Odds | Democratic Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | -133 | -105 |
| Florida | -1400 | +600 |
| Georgia | -225 | +150 |
| Michigan | +140 | -200 |
| Nevada | -133 | -105 |
| North Carolina | -182 | +130 |
| Pennsylvania | -105 | -133 |
| Wisconsin | +125 | -167 |